Egg Harbor, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

209
FXUS61 KPHI 152152
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
552 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will dissipate through the evening. Brief period
of ridging comes in tonight, with a warm front coming through on
Friday morning. Unsettled weather with periods of showers,
storms, and high humidity continues through Saturday until a
strong cold front comes through on Saturday Night. Drier high
pressure will settle into the region by Sunday into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
552 PM update...
No actual changes at this moment, just noting we have resumed
local operations following the AWIPS update.

439 PM update...
The low clouds and fog from this morning continue to mix out
and improve this afternoon. With the mid level trough axis
remaining in the vicinity and the weak surface low nearby as
well, diurnal instability has resulted in some isolated to
scattered showers/storms this afternoon.

PoPs were increased slightly across the board for this
afternoon. With PWats around 1.25-1.50", heavy downpours will be
possible as well as gusty winds and small hail. PoPs are
generally around 40-60%, but those that see something could see
some urban and poor drainage flooding. A Marginal ERO (1/4)
remains across most of the area given potentially slow storm
motion and a saturated surface with some areas seeing 2-3"
yesterday. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely as shear is pretty
weak, but can`t rule it out completely. High temperatures will
be mainly in the 70s and a bit muggy.

A brief period of quiet weather comes tonight as a brief period
of ridging moves overhead. Marine stratus is expected to push
inland again tonight. Could see some areas of fog yet again,
though not expecting it to be as widespread or as dense as this
morning. Mainly dry through tonight following the diminishing
diurnal convection, but still mild and humid, with lows in the
upper 50s/low 60s.

For Friday, a decaying MCS from upstream across the Midwest this
evening is anticipated to impact the region. The threat of
severe hazards will be conditional based on the timing of the
MCS. If it comes through very fast and early in the morning,
the severe threat will likely be low. However, a slower
propagation will yield increasing instability ahead of it, which
would support strengthening. These systems do tend to trend
faster and further south of what guidance suggests. If a slower
evolution comes to fruition, all severe hazards would be
possible, mainly focused on locally damaging wind gusts, but
some hail or a brief tornado could be possible if all the stars
align properly. Brief heavy downpours possible as well. This
MCS and the environment ahead of it will need to be monitored
closely overnight. The SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for
portions of our area to highlight this threat.

Depending on how quickly the MCS passes offshore, we could
potential for diurnally driven convection developing in the
afternoon or early evening as well. A faster/earlier departure
of the MCS will yield a greater threat for severe thunderstorms
in the afternoon, but a slower/later departure will mean a much
lower threat for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.
Something else to keep an eye on as well.

In summary, Friday`s weather and forecast will be highly
mesoscale driven and have low predictability beyond about 6
hours or so. High temperatures should be mostly in the mid 70s
to mid 80s, and muggy with depends in the mid to upper 60s. It
will be mostly cloudy with light south to southwest winds.
Remain alert for additional forecast updates regarding the
potential convective threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging
from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. At the
surface, an area of low pressure slides by to the north Saturday
into Saturday Night, with a cold front advancing towards and
eventually through the region.

Another decaying MCS may impact the area again Friday night or
early Saturday. Any convection Friday night and Saturday could
be impacted by this system.

Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite
muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order
of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking
any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and
evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging
wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of
uncertainty being a couple days out, especially given the
potential for another early MCS. Coverage in showers and
thunderstorms diminishes into the night with the loss of daytime
heating and passage of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday through about Tuesday actually looks pretty nice for
now. With the front coming through, it should result in dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures to close out the weekend
and start next week. Perhaps a little gusty on Sunday, with wind
gusts near 30 MPH possible, but nothing significant.

Next chance for rain comes in the middle of the week with
longer range guidance hinting at a potential coastal storm.
Still widespread timing and track differences but another spring
rainmaker could potentially be on the horizon. Stuck close to
NBM given the uncertainty in the ensembles and deterministic
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 00Z...Mostly VFR, but some MVFR ceilings possible at
times. Isolated SHRA/TSRA, but have maintained VCSH given
isolated coverage. Winds 5 kts or less favoring an E to S
direction. Medium confidence overall.

Tonight...Most likely VFR to start, but restrictions likely
return overnight with low clouds and areas of fog. Low
confidence on timing and details. Winds light and variable to
calm.

Friday...Restrictions likely to start, then improvement to VFR
expected between 15-18Z. A complex of SHRA/TSRA is anticipated
to impact the area early in the day, but confidence on timing
and details is low. Opted for an SHRA with PROB30 for TSRA for
now. Details should become more clear in future updates tonight.
Winds mainly 5 kts or less, settling out of the SW by 18Z.
Additional SHRA/TSRA possible by 21Z. Low confidence overall.

Outlook...

Conditions expected improve for Friday night and Saturday with
prevailing VFR likely during the daytime, aside from any
showers and thunderstorms move in. VFR conditions look to come
Saturday Night and beyond. A few gusts out of the west/northwest
20-25 kt possible but other than that, no significant weather
beyond Saturday Night.

&&

.MARINE...
The Marine Dense Fog Advisory and Small Craft Advisory were
allowed to expire at 4 PM. Some isolated showers/storms
possible this afternoon.

For tonight, winds and seas remain below advisory criteria.
However, areas of fog will remain and some locally dense fog is
possible. Another Dense Fog Advisory may need to be considered
in a future update.

Outlook...

Sub-SCA conditions expected Friday through Monday. However,
showers and spotty thunderstorms may continue to be a risk
through Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening
hours.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for the upper portions of
the tidal Delaware River for minor flooding forecast at
Burlington. Philadelphia should stay just shy of minor flood
thresholds through the remainder of the week.

Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the early morning high
tides through Sunday morning as well, especially along the upper
reaches of the tidal Delaware River. Additional advisories may
be needed.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ106.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for NJZ019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...RCM/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Hoeflich/Staarmann
AVIATION...Hoeflich/Staarmann
MARINE...Hoeflich/Staarmann
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staarmann